Internet & Technology

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Microsoft has announced its new browser called Internet Explorer 9.  The battle lines are formed for the war being waged to hold the attention of the user in the future.

As we have mentioned in the past, the race is for software on 'The Cloud'.   The problem is nobody knows when or how a 'bridge to The Cloud' will support the weight of the computational and data traffic load. 'The Cloud' is jargon for the proper segmentation of software on your laptop, your service provider's server and the World Wide Web with its almost unlimited storage.  This includes all manner of devices including phones.

Google is betting on moving the productivity based computer user's daily software onto the net as opposed to a laptop-centric approach we have today.  Today power users and even home users have their most valuable data and software residing on the disk of their laptop.  They've invested in it.

Google is banking on having compatible look-alikes for things like Microsoft Office.  Most heavy commercial use takes place in an office or plant using combinations of off the shelf software and highly productive specialized software.  For example, Computer Aided Design and Manufacturing runs almost exclusively on Windows based systems that have the power to handle the computational load.  Will the web support this or must it share the load with the Laptop?  The same thing holds true for complicated financial software that runs business

How the future will play out amounts to the big game.  The players are Microsoft and Google.  Apple is counting on their inventive core bringing things like I-Phone and the new I-Pad to market.  They are looking for large markets that don't require so much computational/peripheral power locally.  They don't have a huge market to change in this area.  They've reinvented themselves in other ways.

Google's relatively new Chrome Browser is being positioned to involve server/internet based software as is Internet Explorer 9.

Browsers like Safari and Firefox are innovative and stable, but they don't have the load and obligation of legacy software development standing before them.  How they will develop on 'The Cloud' is hard to see. 

Google has the following advantages:

• The world's most used search engine.

• The always developing Gmail.

• A small start on moving Microsoft Office Functionality to the Web. (you can see it in action from Gmail.)

• Large Server Farms

• Innovation leadership

Microsoft had some distinct advantages too:

• All the MS Office functionality that could move partially to the Web.  They know, own and control it.  The financial model is less clear.

• Hotmail, which is web based.  Outlook Express is 'toast' and they are putting no development in it.

• The new and powerful search engine Bing

• Large Server Farms

• Control over the dominate current operating system.

Apple has some advantages not shared by the other two:

• Apple knows their natural market.

• They have downsized effectively their focus.

• They have a huge market potential with handhelds, which are not expected to be compute intensive.

The large market phone based computing like Blackberry and I-Phone will grow ever more powerful, but will not compete on the heavy duty applications that run business, finance and industry.   They are not intended or configured to do so.  Google is a big player in this market and will get bigger as they try to  merge everything under the Google umbrella.

Nobody knows what the right mix will be.  How much will be on your laptop and how much will reside on the Internet remains 'cloudy'.

When JAVA, the interesting programming language, came out, it was thought that the entire application base and development energy would shift to a server/client model, where the work was shared.  It did not take place due to the complexity of applications and the then slow speed of the network.

Programmers did not know how to share the load. To be sure large databases reside on the net now, but computational power is in the Computer Tower, while the rest is on the server.   This is not the home user model, however, where far more data resides locally.

It's a big game that has serious outcomes.  At the heart of process is the Browser.  What we are used to now is old hat and is being replaced by a more intricate experience based browser that integrates seamlessly with email, voice/video, searches and remote databases.  The new Browsers can be armed for power and entertainment and social networking.  HTML 5 is part of it moving aside Adobe's Flash technology.

Google's strategy appears to be oriented to doing everything possible on the net including most all permanent storage.  Their computational model is not clear, but one clue that both Microsoft and Google have left for us concerns the load and execution of JAVA scripts.  Clearly they think this is important.   This might indicate a much more sophisticated approach to computing where the load is more shared than first anticipated.  Since Google does not control the computational platform unless it is on the web, their need to move most everything, is understandable, but may take a very long time.

Microsoft sees that the final solution is heavily web based, but wants to hold on to their very lucrative software packages like Microsoft Office and the pricing model they have established.  How they plan on moving this technology to the web is not just a matter of getting it done, but of pricing it to support the effort.

Can Microsoft successfully 'morph' their pricing model and operating system to fit the net, which is not used to paying for computing?

A probable solution will reside somewhere between Google's Goal and Microsoft's current model.  It will rely much more on the net than at present, but power will be required locally.

Google has the same problem.  They can't do all the work for free, so they will charge the consumer in the future.

Apple has local based software like Microsoft in their much smaller business market that is known for graphics production.  Do they move that to 'The Cloud' fully or partially?  They are making strides with downloadable software produced by independent programmers.  They are very effective in this for the home user following their music model.

Key to all this is the way the browser operates and the speed of the net.   IE 9 and Chrome are trying to move toward a new paradigm operating system where the browser and operating system merge to the user's eye. 

In order to take over and move software to the net there has to be some bridge to 'The Cloud' that allows existing software to migrate other than by raw conversion of databases and total re-writes.  This would have a big advantage.  These conversions have an annoying habit of letting us down.

The new IE9 is now in beta test and it has more splash than substance, but it will be faster and far more interesting to use as applications come aboard.  All the browsers suffer from Tool Bar clutter.  This has to change, if the ordinary casual user is to move forward along with the power user.

Interestingly, this battle has been fought before, but in reverse.  We got rid of mainframes to adopt PCs and Laptops that were networked only to rely now on servers.  Are we going again to big Mainframes that we now call servers?

In the process of getting rid of mainframes, we distributed the software.  Now we have to integrate it on a grand scale.  Maybe the right balance will be found. 

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Saturday, September 18, 2010